Why Nikola Jokic is Leading the NBA in Assists
A center is leading the NBA in total assists and in assists per game. That’s unusual.
But Nikola Jokic isn’t at the top of those leaderboards because of some freak incidents.
Jamal Murray’s inconsistency appears to have forced Jokic into running more of the team’s offense. And it hasn’t been detrimental, as it’s still among the league’s best, and Jokic is putting up historic numbers.
In NBA history, only two centers have ever averaged six or more assists per game for an entire season. Wilt Chamberlain has done it twice, and Jokic has done it three times (four including this season). Jokic’s 10.5 assists per game this year are the most for a center since Chamberlain’s league-leading 8.6 in 1967-68.
As such, Denver currently rank second in the NBA in Offensive Rating (116.9), third in assists per game (27.2), third in two-point field goal percentage (56.3%), and fifth in points per game (116.5).
However, the Nuggets play at the fifth slowest pace in the league, averaging 97.8 possessions per 48 minutes. This is because Jokic is their offense. The plan is to get him the ball in the half-court and let everyone else move around him. His passing skills will do the rest.
That’s why Jokic has 115 assists this year.
As 61.2% of Denver’s shots come from two-point range, and Denver average the second most cuts per game in the NBA, 30 of those 115 assists came after the scorer cut to the basket. Jokic has superb court vision, and his height helps him see over almost any defender – meaning any cut to the hoop will more than likely be rewarded.
The Nuggets’ spacing allows this to happen, as Jokic’s positioning draws bigger defenders out of the paint. Denver usually set up in either single post or four-out offensive alignments – with either Paul Millsap or Jokic on the block, and everyone else spread out near the three-point line. This creates cutting lanes for players, which in turn drags defenders out of position, and therefore generates open three-point looks. This movement is key, as even if Jokic doesn’t pass to the cutter, he knows how the play will develop and can pass to the open shooter.
These alignments also enable Jokic to occupy different parts of the floor. He averages the most elbow touches per game in the league by a considerable margin (9.4 to Bam Adebayo’s 6.1) and only Joel Embiid averages more post-ups per game. The elbow and the post provide perfect places for Jokic to become the Denver Nuggets’ offensive hub.
In fact, 37.4% of the possessions that ended with a basket off a Jokic assist included the Serbian posting-up. And as he’s still a threat to score with his back to the basket (he’s averaging 24.3 points per game this year) defenses can’t overplay the pass. Jokic can see cutting teammates when stationed at the high, mid, or low-post, and is more than willing to kick the ball out to shooters. This is especially true when doubled, as even though the defense’s plan is to get the ball out of Jokic’s hands, his reactions are so quick he can swiftly pass to an open shooter before the other defenders can rotate.
When at the elbow, Jokic can either post-up, or face-up, his man – producing various options for the offense. Again, he can back his man down, anticipate the double team and find an open teammate. Opponents can’t drop too far into the paint because he’s a threat to shoot from outside (shooting 41.2% from three) and regardless of whether a defender is on him or not, he can simply survey all the motion around him and pick the right pass. When he faces his man up, his head fakes draw defenders to certain spots before he sends the ball somewhere else – he can look directly at a player cutting to the basket, then find a shooter in the corner.
The elbows also allow Jokic to set screens and use his seven-foot, 284 lb frame, to get teammates open. This season, out of the possessions that ended with a Jokic assist, 29.6% of them involved either a ball screen or a dribble handoff. Not only is Jokic top-ten in the league for screen assists per game, Denver are tenth in the NBA for pick and roll possessions attempted per game that end with the roll man (which is usually Jokic).
Jokic can get the ball as the roller on the pick and roll, and from there he can attack a rotating or unset defense. Dribble hand offs allow teammates to either curl around him and drive to the hoop, or use his body as a shield to get an open jump shot. The latter is helping the Nuggets shoot a league-best 51.3% from mid-range this season.
Everyone’s seen Jokic’s outlet passes, and they have, again, played a huge part in his assist numbers – as has his ability as a ballhandler, which is unparalleled as an NBA center. He can bring the ball up the court and initiate the action, creating opportunities in early offense.
This play sums up how unusual Jokic’s skill set is. Denver flow out of Horns, but instead of Jokic at one of the elbows, it’s Jamal Murray. Jokic passes the ball to Will Barton on the wing, cuts off a step-up screen from Murray at the elbow, gets the ball back, and draws Millsap’s defender. This forces Gary Harris’ man to rotate, meaning Jokic can kick it out to him in the corner for three.
He’s a seven-foot center.
Jokic leading the NBA in assists is no fluke. He could even be the league’s MVP this season. Granted, the Nuggets would have to win more games (they’re currently 5-6) but a center putting up these assist numbers cannot go unrewarded. Denver’s defense may also need to improve for him to have a chance at taking the award home, as they currently allow the eighth-most points per game in the NBA. Then again, they could just outscore opponents. Jokic would help with that.
No matter what the Denver Nuggets do this season, hopefully, Jokic can still offer us more nice dimes in these trying times.